“Fits a mind-first universe at least as well” is a weak conclusion dressed as a strong one. Panpsychism, property dualism, and Chalmers’s own naturalistic dualism all take consciousness seriously without God.

Correct. The hard problem, if real, is evidence against reductive physicalism, and there are non-theistic views (panpsychism, Russellian monism, naturalistic dualism) that accept the problem. The theistic claim is narrower than consciousness proves God. It is that a universe in which mind is fundamental is what theism predicts and what materialism does not, and that the non-theistic alternatives are also departures from materialism. This is a comparison of fit among views that all reject the materialist default.